DEPARTMENT FOR SCIENCE, INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY

Emergence, Persistence and Control of Avian Influenza Zoonotic Risk

Project disclaimer

Disclaimer: The data for this page has been produced from IATI data published by DEPARTMENT FOR SCIENCE, INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY. Please contact them (Show Email Address) if you have any questions about their data.

Description

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) persists in poultry in several countries around the world, with Africa and Asia most severely affected by the disease. The H5 subtype is a major public health concern, with 889 human cases reported to April 2024, approximately half of which were fatal. Poultry to human transmission is especially prevalent in regions where smallholder poultry farming is commonplace, with Indonesia previously being most severely affected by human disease. Additionally, since 2019, there has been a significant increase in cases of H5N1 in poultry and wild birds in Europe and North America and reports of spillover cases to mammalian populations, including recently in cattle farms in the USA, resulting in the World Health Organisation (WHO) declaring that H5N1 poses a risk to humans. The overall aim of this project is to develop an understanding of the demographic, management and behavioural characteristics that affect transmission risk of avian influenza viruses (AIV) within and between poultry farms and between poultry and humans. This will allow us to provide critical information for farmers, government authorities and the general public in Indonesia to implement appropriate surveillance and interventions for reducing the risk of human exposure to HPAI. Our project will consist of three work packages (WPs). In WP1 we will undertake a human behavioural survey and a field study of poultry farms in Indonesia. Using a questionnaire, we will collect information on human behaviour, farming habits, temporal changes in farm/flock sizes, and syndromic detection of disease (e.g. flock death records). Laboratory samples for virological and serological analysis will be taken to detect the presence of current HPAI viruses and antibodies against AIV in poultry and humans. In order to obtain accurate data on circulating H and N subtypes, pseudotyped virus (PV) will be used in neutralisation tests. These biological data will be used in WP2 and WP3. Information will also be collated on the human population, the distribution of poultry farms in Indonesia and case reporting data in the region. In WP2 we will construct a mathematical model to simulate the spread of HPAI within and between poultry farms and at the poultry-human interface. The model will utilise the data from WP1 to determine transmission parameters and the spatial pattern of transmission risk. This will provide information regarding regions that should be targeted for surveillance to reduce the likelihood of future poultry outbreaks and consequently lower the human health risk. In WP3, the model will be used to determine the effectiveness of active surveillance and intervention strategies and their impact upon zoonotic disease transmission. We will employ an adaptive management framework that will enable surveillance and control strategies to be modified during outbreaks as more information becomes available. The key deliverables of this grant will be an increased understanding of the human health implications of HPAI outbreaks in Indonesia, an identification of high-risk regions and an exploration of appropriate adaptive strategies for future outbreaks. The Indonesian team has a proven track record of working with local policy makers which will ensure that our policy recommendations are communicated to appropriate national authorities and local practitioners. The project investigators also collaborate closely with the WHO and the Food and Agriculture Organisation and will liaise closely with these agencies during the project, thereby maximising both the regional and global impact of this research.

Objectives

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) persists in poultry in several countries around the world, with Africa and Asia most severely affected by the disease. The H5 subtype is a major public health concern, with 889 human cases reported to April 2024, approximately half of which were fatal. Poultry to human transmission is especially prevalent in regions where smallholder poultry farming is commonplace, with Indonesia previously being most severely affected by human disease. Additionally, since 2019, there has been a significant increase in cases of H5N1 in poultry and wild birds in Europe and North America and reports of spillover cases to mammalian populations, including recently in cattle farms in the USA, resulting in the World Health Organisation (WHO) declaring that H5N1 poses a risk to humans. The overall aim of this project is to develop an understanding of the demographic, management and behavioural characteristics that affect transmission risk of avian influenza viruses (AIV) within and between poultry farms and between poultry and humans. This will allow us to provide critical information for farmers, government authorities and the general public in Indonesia to implement appropriate surveillance and interventions for reducing the risk of human exposure to HPAI. Our project will consist of three work packages (WPs). In WP1 we will undertake a human behavioural survey and a field study of poultry farms in Indonesia. Using a questionnaire, we will collect information on human behaviour, farming habits, temporal changes in farm/flock sizes, and syndromic detection of disease (e.g. flock death records). Laboratory samples for virological and serological analysis will be taken to detect the presence of current HPAI viruses and antibodies against AIV in poultry and humans. In order to obtain accurate data on circulating H and N subtypes, pseudotyped virus (PV) will be used in neutralisation tests. These biological data will be used in WP2 and WP3. Information will also be collated on the human population, the distribution of poultry farms in Indonesia and case reporting data in the region. In WP2 we will construct a mathematical model to simulate the spread of HPAI within and between poultry farms and at the poultry-human interface. The model will utilise the data from WP1 to determine transmission parameters and the spatial pattern of transmission risk. This will provide information regarding regions that should be targeted for surveillance to reduce the likelihood of future poultry outbreaks and consequently lower the human health risk. In WP3, the model will be used to determine the effectiveness of active surveillance and intervention strategies and their impact upon zoonotic disease transmission. We will employ an adaptive management framework that will enable surveillance and control strategies to be modified during outbreaks as more information becomes available. The key deliverables of this grant will be an increased understanding of the human health implications of HPAI outbreaks in Indonesia, an identification of high-risk regions and an exploration of appropriate adaptive strategies for future outbreaks. The Indonesian team has a proven track record of working with local policy makers which will ensure that our policy recommendations are communicated to appropriate national authorities and local practitioners. The project investigators also collaborate closely with the WHO and the Food and Agriculture Organisation and will liaise closely with these agencies during the project, thereby maximising both the regional and global impact of this research.

---

Location

The country, countries or regions that benefit from this Programme.

Indonesia

Disclaimer: Country borders do not necessarily reflect the UK Government's official position.