DEPARTMENT FOR SCIENCE, INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY

Weather and Climate Science for Service Partnership (WCSSP) South Africa - Calls- tender-HR WALLINGFORD

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Description

Informing context-specific needs for impact-based early warning systems South Africa experiences a wide range of weather and climate-related extremes, including droughts, storms, floods and heat waves which are projected to get worse with climate change. Recent examples of extreme weather events include the 2018 drought in the Western Cape, when Cape Town came dangerously close to what was described as "Day Zero", the moment when approximately four million inhabitants would have been left without water (Pascale et al., 2020) and the April 2022 floods in KwaZulu-Natal which left over 460 people dead and caused US$1.6 billion of damage (Keen et al., 2022). In February 2025, South Africa was hit by extreme weather which resulted in thunderstorms, tornados and flash floods over large areas of the country leading to widespread disruptions to the education system in some provinces and two school children tragically dying in flash floods (Daily Maverick, 2025). Climate change will have an impact on South Africa via, for example, increases in droughts which will affect the agricultural sector and maximum wet bulb temperatures which will adversely affect mortality rates, especially for those living in informal settlements, where houses are often constructed of sheets of corrugated iron (Chersich et al., 2018). Under a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway, climate change is also projected to have potentially devastating impacts on South Africa’s coastal settlements and infrastructure, owing to rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and changing storm patterns, which will combine to worsen coastal flood events (Cartwright, 2011; Dube et al., 2021). One way to ameliorate the effects of extreme weather-related events is via Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings (IbFWs). IbFWs provide stakeholders with the information they need to act before disasters occur, helping them to reduce the socio-economic costs of weatherrelated hazards. In 2020, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) introduced a new severe weather warning system which provides impact-based warnings. SAWS adopted a qualitative approach, as opposed to a quantitative model-based approach, to identify impacts, whereby hazard forecasts are translated into qualitative and selected impacts by emergency managers on the ground. This approach means that emergency managers make the choices on which impacts deserve to be communicated, and which ones are left out.

Objectives

The objective of this research is to identify and critically examine context-specific requirements for IbFWs, for a selection of diverse case study regions and communities in South Africa, considering different sectors, in particular the following four: • Agriculture; • Energy; • Health; and • Marine. The research will undertake stakeholder and community-based needs assessments for IbFWs to: A. Orange level 6: • Disruptive rainfall: Flooding of roads and settlements, and danger to life. B. Orange level 5: • Disruptive rainfall: Flooding of roads and settlements and danger to life. C. Yellow level 2: • Disruptive rainfall: Localised flooding of roads, bridges and settlements. D. Yellow level 1: • Damaging winds: Difficulty in navigation. Risk matrix Minimal Minor Significant Severe Likelihood High Medium Low Very low WCSSP_Appendix_B_Research_Plan_SA25_FY2526_12Mar2025_HRW_response.docx Page 5 of 56 • Understand and document the predominant climate hazards and risks where IbFWs will support actions in affected communities; • Investigate and document the most effective dissemination techniques and technologies (including non-technological options) for IbFWs; and • Document the current challenges and priority needs of the IbFWs providers in meeting these context-specific requirements for development and dissemination of impact-based early warnings. 1.1.3 Research questions This work will address the following research questions: 1. What are the main challenges providers of climate services face in implementing new IbFWs? 2. What are communities’ requirements from new IbFWs? 3. How should new IbFWs for the identified four key sectors be disseminated and communicated to different stakeholders?

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Location

The country, countries or regions that benefit from this Programme.

South Africa

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