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Stability of the South African Power Grid ---A data-driven Statistical Physics-based Approach
DEPARTMENT FOR SCIENCE, INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY
South Africa (SA) primarily relies on coal-fired power plants for its electricity supply. At least 12% of the population does not have access to power and roughly 10% cannot adequately afford electricity, particularly in rural areas. There is a particular challenge with reliable electricity supply in SA, as currently there is inability to deliver sufficient power according to the country’s demand. This has led to the implementation of rolling blackout load shedding events across the country. Load shedding has marked deleterious societal effects. In 2021, the citizens and industries of SA were afflicted by a lack of power and periodic load shedding for over 48 days of the year. There are also unplanned outages (known as non-technical losses) for parts of the network. During electricity outages, people and households typically use Diesel generators (if they can afford them), others simply remain without power. The use of Diesel generators during load shedding periods has severe detrimental effects, in financial, environmental, and health terms. Diesel generators are also frequently used in other African countries if there is no reliable connection to the power grid. Our project aims to better understand, model, and mitigate the above load shedding situations in SA, working towards sustainable solutions (alternatives to Diesel generators) with no Carbon emissions that can be afforded by all. The overall aim is to model, understand and improve the stability of the African power grid using methods from statistical physics. To model the South African power grid as a whole, we will be using cutting-edge research methods in statistical physics modelling of complex systems, data-driven analysis and machine learning. A central aspect of our work plan will be the analysis of frequency fluctuations in the main grid, the control of microgrids, and the analysis of wind energy statistics, working towards future implementation of zero-emission generators based on wind power, solar panels, and batteries. We will model and analyse the overall demand patterns of electricity consumers in SA in a data-driven way, to finally arrive at practical solutions and concrete mitigation strategies. We aim at solutions that are particularly suited for the poorest in SA. At the same time our approach will contribute to lowering the Carbon footprint of SA in the long-term. The main general objectives of our proposal are as follows: Model and forecast the stability of the SA power grid. Model the fluctuating electricity demand of individual households in a data-driven statistical-physics inspired way. From a complex system point of view, take up the challenge of modelling a system where demand and supply don’t match. Model microgrids that use Diesel generators and/or zero-emission generators during load shedding periods. Measure frequency fluctuations in the grid and feed the data into theoretical statistical-physics based models. Develop statistical physics models that capture the essential features of the dynamics. Using neural nets, predict wind power fluctuations in SA. Prepare the ground for long-term mitigation strategies and a reliable electricity supply for all (in particular the poorest communities in SA) during load shedding periods and beyond, based on wind power, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Foster new scientific collaborations between SA and the UK, dealing with statistical physics-based modelling of power grids. Work together towards a long-term strategy where power is provided in a reliable way, at the same time reducing the Carbon footprint of SA.
Private Enterprise Programme Zambia Phase II
UK - Foreign, Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO)
To create investment in Zambia by building the capacity of micro, small and medium sized enterprises. The programme will aim to systematically transform the finance and investment environment for SMSEs in Zambia, by helping companies with potential to grow and become the engine of job creation in the economy. In addition, the programme will also provide independent technical advice and assistance to Zambian government bodies and private sector organisations engaged in projects that harness the potential of Zambia’s infrastructure, cities and towns to act as drivers for economic growth and job creation. Furthermore, the programme will support trade facilitation initiatives that will help reduce time spent at the Nakonde boarder post. The programme will create jobs at scale, including for women, disabled, and rural communities with high levels of poverty. SMSEs supported by the programme will help to improve nutrition outcomes and improve climate resilience of smallholder farmers.
Climate Smart Development for Nepal
UK - Foreign, Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO)
This will help Nepal to cope with impacts of climate change (CC) and promote clean development. It will provide strategic support to the Govt of Nepal to design and implement CC policies, to integrate resilience throughout government planning. This will:Improve resilience of 700,000 poor & vulnerable people (especially women) to floods, landslides, droughts in most remote districts;Improve resilience of businesses in 5 growing urban centres & 3 river basins through investments in urban planning, large scale irrigation systems & flood management;Facilitate connection of over 25,000 households to new micro-hydro power installations; connect over 70,000 homes to solar power & install RET in more than 200 schools/health clinics;Develop industry standard for ‘clean’ brick production and enable over half of the brick kilns (at least 400) to adopt more efficient technologies;Improve design of future CC programming & beyond through generation of world class evidence
TEA - Transforming Energy Access
UK - Foreign, Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO)
TEA is the flagship FCDO research and innovation platform supporting early-stage testing and scale-up of innovative technologies and business models that accelerate access to affordable, clean, and modern energy in developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Indo-Pacific, enabling sustainable and inclusive growth. TEA seeks to improve clean energy access for 25 million people, create 170,000 green jobs, and leverage £1.3 billion of additional investment into clean energy technology research, innovation and scale-up. It contributes to International Climate Finance (ICF) objectives and it is the main FCDO platform for delivery of the £1 billion UK Ayrton Fund for clean energy innovation between 2021 and 2026. TEA is delivered by four lead FCDO partners - Carbon Trust, Innovate UK, Shell Foundation, and ESMAP – and a network to date of more than 750 downstream partners delivering research and innovation activities in more than 60 countries.
Increasing access to electricity in Sierra Leone
UK - Foreign, Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO)
To increase access to improved, affordable and sustainable electricity supply for human development and wealth creation in Sierra Leone by 2018. through a combination of interventions supporting hard infrastructure, institutional reform and operational improvement.
Pacific Clean Energy Programme
UK - Foreign, Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO)
The Pacific Clean Energy Programme (PCEP) will support increased investment in renewable energy, and aims to improve access to electricity, increase the proportion of electricity from renewable sources, and reduce greenhouse gas emission.
Ukraine Resilience and Energy Security Programme (URES)
UK - Foreign, Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO)
The Ukraine Resilience and Energy Security Programme (URES) aim is to strengthen access to the European power grid; support more efficient use of energy; and decrease reliance on hydrocarbons. This will promote Ukraine's welfare and economic development, as energy security has been presented by the Government of Ukraine as a top priority in the lead-up to and aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. £62m will be provided to end 2025 to support energy security for Ukraine and ensure that UK expertise and innovation continues to be made available for reconstruction efforts. The programme will deliver: generators (fossil fuel & solar) to increase resilience of key facilities; equipment and parts to repair the transmission system following Russian attacks; investment in green energy companies; grants for the development of green innovations; technical assistance and monitoring; plus contingency.
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